Monthly Archives: September 2014

Week 2 Upset Alert

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Soft scheduling is a bit of an epidemic in the second week of the season. Only two games are between Top 25 teams and eight of the Top 25 scheduled a FCS school. Here is a look at some of the games that can put a member of the autonomous five in jeopardy.

Eastern Washington at Washington

Washington dropped out of the Top 25 despite defeating Hawaii last week 17-16. That’s how vulnerable the Huskies looked against a 1-11 team and in comes the No. 2 FCS school in country this Saturday. Eastern Washington posted 625 yards of offense in its win over PAC 12 Oregon State last season and that was second highest total OSU allowed all year. Washington will have to have a solid performance to avoid the upset. I don’t think it will as the FCS will get its third win on the season against a FBS school. Hawaii outgained Washington last week and that is a giant red flag.

Oregon State at Hawaii

To the school that nearly defeated Washington as Hawaii gets another crack at a PAC 12 team this week at home. The Rainbow Warriors are better than last season’s 1-11 team and look for them to come out wanting to prove it. FCS Portland State actually had a 14-13 lead at the half last week against Oregon State before the Beavers pulled away in the second half for a 29-14 win. I’ll pick Hawaii since I don’t think Oregon State is stronger than Washington. Plus, this pregame Hawaiian chant is just too cool.

Missouri at Toledo

A MAC frontrunner hosting a SEC team that’s in for a bit of a regression year. Now we’re talking. Toledo pulled away from a very good FCS team in New Hampshire Saturday and has an experienced team. The Tigers defeated the Rockets last year 38-23 but it was only 24-23 in the third quarter. Toledo is going throw everything into this game and that’s why I’m picking them.

Western Kentucky at Illinois

This is a slam dunk, Illinois nearly lost to FCS Youngstown State last week. Now comes CUSA Western Kentucky, who trashed the defending MAC champion Bowling Green State 59-31. The Hilltoppers scored over 30 points per game last season and the Fighting Illini could only do 28 against a FCS squad. Not good. I’m taking WKU.

Central Michigan at Purdue

Purdue is coming off a 1-11 year and showed little improvement against Western Michigan last Saturday who was also 1-11. While the Boilers won 43-34 they are going up against a stronger MAC school in the Chippewas this week. I knew Central would struggle against a quality FCS team in Chattanooga but its defense held a good offense to just 16 points. Honestly, I think Chattanooga’s offense is better than the Purdue squad Central Michigan will face. Purdue has to prove to it can beat an average team before I feel comfortable picking them.

Northern Illinois at Northwestern

This one is also obvious as Northern Illinois has a history of devouring weak Big Ten teams. It beat Iowa and pummeled Purdue 55-24 last season and Northwestern is a sitting duck. The Wildcats have lost eight of their last nine games so it’s insane to see them as a favorite against anyone. My main concern is that NIU winning is not really an upset. Maybe the Huskies will take this game lightly while the Wildcats will be in redemption mode? Until Northwestern shows some life I have to go with NIU.

Old Dominion at NC State

NC State will always be on upset alert when it plays a team from the group of five. CUSA Old Dominion hung in there against Pittsburgh last season in a 35-24 and returns most its team. NC State barely survived Georgia Southern of the Sun Belt last week 24-23 and lost its last eight games of 2013. This is a coin flip and always go with the underdog in that case. Look for ODU to get a big win over an ACC school.

Other upset alert games: Texas Tech at UTEP, Stony Brook at Connecticut, Alcorn State at Southern Miss, Washington State at Nevada

The Slightly Better Football Teams

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I take it "Cal Wins" doesn't happen very much.

I take it “Cal Wins” doesn’t happen very much.

You can’t win a national title in the first week of the season but you can satisfy the expectations of your fan base. For those hoping their football team would just “get better” then you’re in luck if you are a fan of one of these teams from each conference.

ACC: Virginia

Virginia hung in there against UCLA Saturday and that’s a win for a 2-10 team in 2013. Heck, this was a squad that was trashed by Ball State at home last season 48-27 so losing 28-20 to No. 7 UCLA is amazing. The Cavaliers have an experienced team and should break their ACC losing streak this season given how weak the league is. Going to a bowl game will be tough but anything over 2 wins should be a plus.

PAC-12: California

Remember how California lost by two touchdowns to Northwestern in the season opener a season ago in Berkeley? Things changed as the 1-11 Golden Bears won their first game at Northwestern 31-24 in what I thought was the biggest upset of the weekend. Cal has already matched last season’s win total and now gets to host FCS Sacramento State this week.

Big Ten: Rutgers

Big Ten fans are happily claiming Rutgers after its road trip to Seattle where it knocked off Washington State 41-38. The Scarlet Knights did go 7-6 last season but not many were expecting them to do much in the Big Ten. Maybe Rutgers will avoid the Big Ten cellar after all.

Big 12: West Virginia

Going up against Alabama, many thought West Virginia would be cannon fodder but the Mountaineers made a game of it. It was a 33-23 defeat but the Mountaineers trailed by only three at halftime. After a 4-8 season, West Virginia has a chance to win four of its next five games. Its date with Maryland on Sept. 13 will be crucial.

SEC: Tennessee

Tennessee shutdown an explosive offense in Utah State Sunday night, holding it to seven points. Tennessee is looking to improve from 5-7 this season and should be favored in at least five more games this season. The Vols should be going bowling.

American Athletic Conference: Temple

One team in the SEC that did not improve was Vanderbilt, a school that was embarrassed by Temple on Thursday 37-7. Temple was 2-10 in 2013 and is a lock to surpass last season’s win total. Temple really made the new SEC Network look bad as all the “experts” called for a Vanderbilt rout. Nice job Owls.

Mountain West: Hawaii

Hawaii only won one game last season but showed improvement in its one point loss to No. 25 Washington 17-16. The Rainbow Warriors should have won this game as they held the Huskies scoreless in the 2nd half. They will get another crack at a PAC 12 school as Oregon State comes to the islands Saturday.

Sun Belt: Georgia State

Georgia State surpassed last season’s win total with a victory over FCS Abilene Christian Wednesday 38-37 meaning it is already an amazing season for Panther fans. Seriously, everything from here on out is bonus money. The Panthers will have a great shot at beating a FBS team for the first time in school history this Saturday as they host the Aggies of New Mexico State.

MAC: Akron

The MAC East is has no clear favorite this season and maybe Akron can sneak in. The Zips blew out FCS Howard Thursday and that is an upgrade from last season. All five of Akron’s wins in 2013 had a margin of victory of a touchdown or less. This could be the year of the Zips. We’re pulling for you Terry Bowden.

Conference USA: UAB

UAB hasn’t even sniffed bowl eligibility in the last few years but that could be changing. UAB broke a three-game losing streak to in-state rival Troy State Saturday. In the rebuilt Conference USA look for the Blazers to do some damage despite a 2-10 record in 2013.