Cupcake eaters of the 2015 college football season

A look a North Carolina’s schedule.

Scheduling is not easy for college athletic directors, but Power 5 conferences have privileges the mid-majors and FCS schools do not. Money, attendance and prestige for starters, as the big schools can get anyone to play them and pick where they play.

So when I see a Power 5 school go light with their non-conference schedule I get annoyed. Sure, everyone is entitled to play a FCS school and a Sun Belt doormat, but when that’s all your team does outside of conference action it’s time to grab your pitchfork and charge the athletic office. Here is a look at some schools that could have done a little more in non-conference.

No. 7: Washington State
Washington State has a relatively small stadium for a Power 5 school and that’s a good thing with the weak home slate the Cougars have. It at least gives them hope of selling out when Portland State and Wyoming comes to town. They do travel to a Big Ten team in Rutgers but the PAC-12 schedule is one of the weakest in the conference with USC and Utah left off. Only Stanford and Arizona State will come into Pullman as teams that played in a bowl last year. By the time they do arrive the Cougars may be 2-5 so buy those season tickets today.

No. 6: Arkansas
Give credit to Arkansas for playing Texas Tech but it only has four true road games on the schedule. With seven home games and a neutral site contest with Texas A&M, Arkansas is determined to make Head Coach Bret Bielema look as good as possible in his third year. Poor UTEP, Toledo, and UT-Martin. Just let those cupcakes bake at 350 degrees and let them cool for five minutes.

No. 5: Florida
The Gators are just as guilty as the Razorbacks with only four road games. Florida though has to play Florida State as a rivalry so that doesn’t mean much in terms of scheduling credit. Especially in a year where Auburn and Alabama are not on the schedule making SEC play somewhat manageable. East Carolina is a tough Group of Five school but New Mexico State and Florida Atlantic are pure cupcakes.

No. 4: Penn State
Penn State does have stomach to play at Temple but that doesn’t mean much when you have won the last 31 meetings. Home games against Buffalo, San Diego State and Army West Point are added to a suspect Big Ten slate. The Nittany Lions dodge all the good teams of the West Division. Instead of dealing with Iowa and Wisconsin it’s Northwestern and Illinois. Maryland was supposed to be a road game but that it is a neutral site contest in Baltimore. The result is only three true road games in conference to go along with a four mid-majors. If Penn State is not 6-0 going into Ohio State on Oct. 17 than it should be considered a failure.

No. 3: Florida State
FSU has to outdo in-state rival Florida so it welcomes two FCS programs to Tallahassee in 2015. Again, you can’t give credit to the Seminoles for playing at the rival Gators. That game is an obligation. When you add South Florida, Texas State, and Chattanooga to an unappealing ACC menu it does not attract interest. At Clemson and at Georgia Tech are games of interest but the Noles will face the challenge of not looking ahead to those games. Miami and Louisville are at home minimizing the upset potential.

No. 2: Boston College
Boston College opens with two FCS schools in Maine and Howard. The Eagles are another school with only four road games. Yeah, it’s cool Boston College plays Notre Dame and a tough MAC school in Northern Illinois but the road schedule is Duke, Clemson, Louisville and Syracuse. Not exactly the gauntlet. Part of the problem is that there are not that many FBS programs in the northeast. I would like to see Boston College play Connecticut but maybe they fight over recruits too much.

No. 1: North Carolina
North Carolina doesn’t have the excuse Boston College has as there are plenty of good football programs in the South. UNC also plays two FCS schools and only has four road games. Heck, just two of those games take place before November. I like the Tar Heels playing the Gamecocks of South Carolina on a neutral field but that’s the only thing to like here. Illinois is at home and sandwiched between FCS North Carolina A&T and FCS Delaware. The big kicker though is Florida State and Clemson are not on the ACC schedule. Instead it draws C-listers Wake Forest and North Carolina State out of the Atlantic division. So not exactly must see games will be going down at Chapel Hill this year. You can’t blame UNC for the weaker ACC slate as the conference does that but the Tar Heels should have been more bold in non-conference to make up for it. Two FCS schools when you are in an area filled with CUSA and Sun Belt teams can’t be accepted. I guess this is what happens when you lose to East Carolina two straight seasons.

An Objective Way to Rank the Conferences 2015

The SEC still has plenty to say for itself.

Last year I used the Sagarin ratings to find a quantitative method of determining the best conference of college football. I like the Sagarin ratings because it gives a score and ranking for every team in both FBS and FCS levels. Sagarin splits conference rankings into divisions so I had to do some work to see how the conferences stack up.

I found a conference average and median then split the difference to determine a total score.
The results are going to make SEC fans very happy. The Southeastern Conference had 13 of its 14 teams in the top 50 leaving Vanderbilt was the weak link as an outlier. Eight teams were in the top 15. That’s right, over half the SEC is ranked in the top 15 of the Sagarin rankings.

Alabama’s loss to Ohio State only dropped the Tide to No. 4 but the big surprise was Georgia at No. 5. That is because the Bulldogs went 6-2 against top 30 teams including wins over Clemson and Louisville from the ACC. This doesn’t mean that everyone should view Georgia as a top five team, but it does mean Georgia beat many quality teams this season that should not be overlooked.

While SEC critics will point to the elite teams losing on New Year’s Day the conference did go 7-5 in bowls. While the front of the pack teams in Mississippi State and Ole Miss lost, they couldn’t fall far because teams they beat in the regular season (Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee,) all won. Ole Miss blew out a Boise State squad back in August and that win looks better after Boise won the Fiesta Bowl over Arizona.

Arizona’s loss is a blemish on a great bowl season for the PAC-12, who went 6-2 in the postseason. The PAC-12 is the SEC’s biggest competition just like last season as half the conference is among the top 25 teams. The PAC-12’s issue is the bottom half with Washington State, Oregon State and Colorado outside the top 80. Washington State dropped to two games out of conference and Oregon State won but struggled with Hawaii and FCS Portland State. Colorado had a dismal 2-10 season with close calls to UMass and Hawaii as well. This pulled the PAC-12 down just enough to give the SEC the edge.

The Big 12, ACC and Big Ten pretty much evened out. Although it’s important to note TCU is the No. 1 team here. I doubt being the No. 1 Sagarin rating team is going to make up for missing the playoff. All three conferences had too many teams dragging their rankings down. Looking at you Iowa State, Kansas, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Indiana and Purdue.

The most surprising find was the Missouri Valley Conference of the FCS being ahead of all five FBS mid-major leagues. Half the Valley made it to the 24-team FCS playoff and the league did well. North Dakota State will meet Illinois State for the title tomorrow in a battle between conference rivals.

NDSU defeated Iowa State handily to boost the valley. Northern Iowa was competitive enough with Iowa and Hawaii to make an impact as well. Middle of the pack Indiana State won at Ball State. The result is a FCS league with 70 percent of the teams with winning records.

I thought the Mountain West would be a little higher but Boise State was the only team in the top 50 at No. 37. Little things like Air Force struggling to beat Georgia State, Colorado State getting pasted by Utah, and UNLV having a dismal year added up. It’s not good win Fresno State carries the West division despite a loss to the No. 172 team in UNLV.

The American Athletic had the largest variety with teams in the top 50 like Memphis and teams outside the top 200 in SMU. Little improvement among the back of the league will go a long way next season.

Conference USA may feel cheated to learn that Marshall had the highest ranking among mid-major teams but did not get to play in the Fiesta Bowl. The problem for CUSA is the bottom eight of the 13 teams were outside the Top 100.

It’s hard to rate the Sun Belt with two of its top four teams being denied bowl opportunities (Georgia Southern and Appalachian State) but it somehow rated higher than the MAC. Northern Illinois was the highest ranked in the MAC at No. 71 and that’s lowest ranking for any No. 1 team of a conference. The entire MAC East was a disaster with Bowling Green being the best at No. 120.

Instead of UMass, or some other team back East, the Mid-American Conference should be looking at the Missouri Valley for expansion. Go west young MAC. Go west.

The Sagarin rankings could change a tiny bit after the championship games this weekend but not much as Oregon and Ohio State are both secured in the top 3. For that I have to go with Oregon and North Dakota State in the FCS title.

2014’s Most Depressing Team: SMU

Last year we had four winless FBS teams going into Thanksgiving. Now we have just one but there are teams who are winless in conference play too. Nothing though is more depressing than the burning hulk known as Southern Methodist University football.

SMU: 0-10 (0-6)

The good news for SMU is that they still have two games left. The bad news is the Mustangs have done little to prove they are capable of winning a game. SMU has scored less than 10 points in six games this year. In the first seven games SMU was outscored 336 – 49, those are video game scores.

SMU did not schedule a FCS school, or a cupcake Sun Belt team. With no failsafe game the Ponies were in danger from the get go but this type of collapse was unexpected. Coming off a 5-7 year and multiple winning seasons in years prior should be enough to avoid a winless year.

SMU is still fighting losing by one to South Florida at home 14-13. Still, it’s hard to stay positive for the program, even on Twitter.

After an SMU fumble, UCF strikes again. 27-0 Knights. 1:09 left in 1st. Follow http://t.co/7aFIk2TEXF for more udpates.

— SMU FOOTBALL (@SMUFB) November 22, 2014

What about the graphics department? I’m sure they can make a nice infographic to make SMU’s season seem cheerful.

When you don’t have anything nice to say, just show the uniform combination.

I guess when there is nothing positive to report you spend an entire infographic on the uniforms. Not a good situation.

Will SMU win a game? Yes

SMU will play Houston at home Friday before traveling to 2-8 Connecticut to close out the season on Dec. 6. The Mustangs should have more motivation than both opponents and UConn is the best candidate. The two teams are dead even at passing yards per game and UConn is No. 119 in rushing with SMU at No. 121.

This means it will come down to turnovers. The Mustangs have turned the ball over 26 times this year, tied for the No. 118 in the nation. The Huskies have turned the ball over 21 times though so this is an even game. In that case I have to pick the team that wants it more and that should be SMU. It may be the pillow fight of the year but a win for SMU will salvage something for the 2014 season. That would be something to be thankful for.

Other depressing teams:
2. Georgia State: 1-10 (0-7) Only win came against FCS Abilene Christian.
3. Kent State: 1-9 (0-6) Winless in MAC play.
4. Vanderbilt: 3-8 (0-7) Winless in SEC action and nearly lost to FCS Charleston Southern.
5. Colorado: 2-9 (0-8) Winless in PAC-12 play but did force two overtime games.

Down to the Wire Conference Crowns

Or three co-champions.

With just two weeks to go in the regular season, some conferences and division titles are still up in the air. Here are the ones yet to be decided.

ACC Coastal

Georgia Tech is through ACC play with an impressive 6-2 record. Only Duke can catch Tech in the Coastal division at 4-2. Duke must win out against rival North Carolina (won’t be easy) and Wake Forest (a lock) all at home. The Blue Devils have the tie-breaker for the Yellow Jackets with a 31-25 win in Atlanta back on October 11. I think Duke will pull this one out and win back-to-back Coastal Division titles.

American Athletic Conference

East Carolina’s days as a top 25 team are long over after three losses in AAC play. Heck, no one in the conference is even receiving votes in the AP poll anymore. Memphis (5-1), Cincinnati (4-1), and Central Florida (4-1) are the top dogs now. Of those teams Memphis has the easiest schedule and with two home games against South Florida and UConn. Both have losing records.

Big 12

The Big 12 is down to Kansas State, Baylor and TCU. All have one loss in conference action but TCU has two games left while the others have three. Baylor and Kansas State still have to play each other in Manhattan. A K-State victory there will help but TCU has the tie-breaker against them. As long as TCU can get past Texas on Thanksgiving night it should be enough to win the conference and get a playoff spot.

Big Ten West

Four teams are alive in the West with Wisconsin (5-1) leading the way. Minnesota (4-2), Nebraska (4-2) and Iowa (4-2) have good odds too. Wisconsin still has to play at Iowa and host Minnesota. I think the Badgers will win out but a loss will cause plenty of chaos in this division.

MAC West

Northern Illinois (5-1), Toledo (5-1), Western Michigan (5-1) and Central Michigan (4-2) are slugging it out the final weeks in the MAC West. NIU is the typical favorite but has to go on the road to Western Michigan to close the season. Then again, Western still has to play at Central. Toledo hosts rival and MAC East champ Bowling Green Wednesday. I have to pick NIU, the defending MAC West champ, until the other schools prove themselves.

The Mountain West

Moving on up! @CSUFootball is No. 23 in the @USATODAY Coaches Poll, No. 22 in the @AP_Top25! #CSURams #TheClimb pic.twitter.com/wZgJrHoF7O

— Colorado State Rams 🐏 (@CSURams) November 16, 2014

This conference is wide-open with four teams in the Mountain division in Colorado State, Air Force, Boise State, and Utah State still going for the crown. The Rams are the only other ranked group of five team besides Marshall. The West is a three-way between 3-3 teams in Fresno State, San Diego State and Nevada. Boise State has the easiest schedule remaining in the Mountain and that’s where the conference champion will come from. If Colorado State wins at Air Force though, it should come out of the division. For now I have to go with Boise as Air Force is a tough out.

PAC-12 South

Arizona State’s upset loss at Oregon State has thrown this division into a flux. Arizona, USC, and UCLA (who I left for dead earlier) are also in the mix. I like UCLA as it hosts USC and Stanford. The Arizona’s still have to play each other and Arizona itself will have tough match at Utah.

SEC West

Alabama is back in the driver seat of the division after beating No. 1 Mississippi State Saturday. If Bama beats Auburn at home it will go to the SEC championship game. If Auburn pulls the upset that’s when it gets interesting. Mississippi State and Ole Miss still have to play each other too and the winner of that game would then become the division champion. That is of course if Ole Miss takes care of Arkansas and Mississippi State takes care of Vanderbilt this week.

SEC East

The SEC East is simple, if Missouri wins out the Tigers take the division. A loss to either at Tennessee or home to Arkansas and Georgia will win the division. The Bulldogs are through SEC play at 6-2 and but have the tie-breaker as they gave the Tigers their only SEC loss. Look for Missouri to drop a game giving Georgia the division.

Sun Belt

Georgia Southern and Louisiana are undefeated in Sun Belt action but don’t play each other. Georgia Southern has just one game remaining hosting 3-7 Louisiana-Monroe. The Ragin’ Cajuns have the tougher road hosting Appalachian State (5-5, 4-2) and at Troy (3-8, 3-4). I still think both teams will finish undefeated and we’ll have co-champions in the Sun Belt.

Bonus FCS Picks

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: New Hampshire
Missouri Valley: Illinois State and North Dakota State
SWAC: Alcorn State

Big 12 Football Steps into Spotlight

Here is your navigation solution for viewing college sports in the next three days.
Big 12 football seems to dominate Saturday as it has half of the games I consider “must see” for passionate college football fans. Baylor will have a hard test at West Virginia. Kansas State has a chance to destroy Oklahoma’s playoff chances at noon as well. TCU looks to rebound from the disappointing Baylor loss at 4 against Oklahoma State.

The sneaky game is Northwestern hosting Nebraska in what could create chaos in the Big Ten West if the Wildcats can defend their home turf. Florida State and Notre Dame has obvious playoff impact.

If you only see one non-football game this week, check out North Carolina going to rival Duke on Sunday in women’s volleyball. Both are ranked in the top 25 and you know that game will be heated.

Weekend Game Plan: Oct 10-12

Saturday is loaded with great football matchups from noon to 2 a.m. A total of five games between top 23 teams meaning at least 20 percent of the best are going down Saturday.

Missouri has a golden opportunity to take control of the SEC East with Georgia coming to Columbia. Especially now with Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley being placed on indefinite suspension. Georgia Tech is undefeated and will have control of the ACC Coastal with a win over Duke.

Then at 3:30 will be the massive meeting between No. 2 Auburn at No. 3 Mississippi State. No. 9 TCU will give No.5 Baylor its first test of the season at the same time.

Penn State will try to add insult to injury at Michigan in the evening. Will be interesting to see how Michigan fans react during the game. No. 3 Ole Miss will try to follow up its win against Alabama by going to No. 14 Texas A&M. Expect the Aggies to play better after losing to Mississippi State. Late at night will be a fun game between a vengeful and unranked USC against No. 10 Arizona. I’m sure the Trojans will play with fury after losing to a Hail Mary last week against Arizona State.

Some good volleyball games this weekend with No. 4 Florida State on Friday and No. 9 Florida in action Sunday. If the NFL is boring Sunday than be sure to check those games out on the SEC Network. Here is the sports schedule I’ll try to follow.

Enjoy the Check Kent State, Southern Miss and Wyoming

This is a soft slate of college football games this week as Georgia vs. South Carolina is the only match-up between Top 25 teams. There is a reason why the College GameDay gang is at North Dakota State tomorrow and that’s because there isn’t a better place to go. So that means it’s time to see what mid-majors are bold enough to get paid and destroyed by the big boys. Welcome to the Budget Games.

Kent State at Ohio State

The Buckeyes will pay the Golden Flashes $850,000 to travel to Columbus and take a beating Saturday. Or will they? Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett is trying to fill in for injured Braxton Miller and has thrown 4 picks. Three of which came in its 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech.

Kent State though couldn’t break 300 yards of offense against Ohio and South Alabama so the Ohio State defense will be a mountain. This upset is simply not happening as I give 0-2 Kent State a 2 percent chance.

Southern Mississippi at Alabama

Say hello to a beating Golden Eagles. Southern Mississippi was trashed by Mississippi State 49-0 and No.3 Alabama is better than Mississippi State. Southern Miss barely survived FCS Alcorn State 26-20 so this game is going to get ugly and get ugly fast. This has a zero percent chance of an upset.

Wyoming at Oregon

Just think about this moment when Oregon is up 56-14 Wyoming fans.

No. 2 Oregon just had a huge win over Michigan State and Wyoming just had a huge win over… Air Force. Wyoming is 2-0 but the average margin of victory is 4.5 points. That includes a tight 17-12 decision over FCS Montana. Oregon had nearly 500 yards of offense against a strong defense in Michigan State while Wyoming had 300 yards against Montana. Not good. Zero percent chance of upset.

Other Budget Games: UL-Monroe at LSU, Miami U at Michigan, UMass at Vanderbilt, Louisiana at Ole Miss