Unlike Thanksgiving and Christmas, few athletic departments did much for Easter in social media. The lack of team photos with “Happy Easter” written underneath them was surprising.
The only exception I saw was the Big West Conference.
That’s right folks, the only league to really wish its followers a happy Easter was far from the Bible belt. Instead it was league based in liberal California. Go figure. Wichita State did get creative by having an Easter egg hunt during a baseball game. Each egg contained team memorabilia and goodies. Now that’s sports marketing at its finest.
A stat I keep seeing over and over in the NCAA Tournament is the sheer volume of 3-pointers some teams are taking. I used to see the three-pointer as an equalizer for the smaller schools. A way for schools lacking in size to stay competitive against the basketball elite. Yet it’s the basketball elite that are launching the 3s in this tournament. And the underdogs start a dance circle every time those 3s go up. Literally.
Oklahoma shot 30 3s against North Dakota State and made 12 of them. The Bison only took 14 and made six for a higher percentage. Why would a Big-12 team good enough to make the tournament settle for so many jumpers against a mid-major?
Ivy League schools like Harvard are expected to be filled with finesse jump shooters. Yet in its upset vs. Cincinnati, Harvard shot 12 more free throws because it attacked the rim more.
Manhattan nearly pulled off the upset over Louisville even though it only attempted five 3s. In comparison, Louisville went 4-13 from deep.
And then of course there’s Duke, a member of basketball’s royalty. Yet against underdog Mercer, Duke attempted 37 3s! Duke even made 15 of them and still lost. That’s because it gave away 22 free possessions to Mercer with all those misses from deep. The Bears went to the free throw line 15 more times the Blue Devils. Two days later against Tennessee, Mercer only attempted nine foul shots. The correlation is evident.
Even the best 3-point shooting teams in the country are clanking left and right. Creighton, the No. 1 3-point field-goal percentage team in the country, shot 5-24 from behind the arc in its embarrassing 85-55 defeat to Baylor.
Gonzaga, a top 10 3-point percentage team, shot 6-16 in its loss to Arizona in a game that was never competitive.
One team even won last week while not hitting a single 3 at all. Stanford defeated Kansas 60-57, despite going 0-9 from 3. It helped that Kansas went 5-16.
Dayton defeated Ohio State but only went 3-13 from 3. The Buckeyes didn’t do any better going 3-12.
Syracuse went 0-10 in its loss to Dayton. After a 0-7 start you would think the Orange would get the hint to attack the basket.
St. Louis was the worse among all of them against Louisville, going 0-15 from 3. Might as well have been 15 turnovers.
The first weekend of the tournament validated all the people who say you must attack the basket. In six games against above average defenses, no team is going to be hot from 3 all the time. You have to have multiple ways to score.
Now the pressure falls to schools like Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA, Baylor, UConn, and Dayton. All are top-50 teams in 3-point field goal percentage but will now be shooting in large NBA and even NFL venues this weekend. These larger venues are not to kind to shooters who are trying to gauge their range.
We’ll see if the feast and famine trend from the 3-point line continues. For those who rely on the 3, I sure hope they have a contingency plan.
While winning an office pool is nice but the real test of a March Madness “expert” is calling for a massive upset and getting it right. Picking upsets all over the place is not going to work and is cheating. But if you have the stones to pick an occasional 15 over a 2, then this post is for you.
5. 12 seed North Dakota State over 5 seed Oklahoma
Some people are even picking North Dakota State to go to the sweet 16. I can see why as the Bison are a spark in a munitions factory in terms of offense. NDSU is No. 1 in the nation in field-goal percentage shooting 50.9 percent. Oklahoma is nothing special on defense so it should be a coin-flip game. Take the little guy in those situations.
4. Dayton goes to the sweet 16
Ohio State and Syracuse are not perfect, opening the door for a Cinderella there. How about Dayton as it should be fired up to play Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been afraid to put the in-state foe on their schedule, but they can’t be avoided now. Dayton is a top-50 team in both rebounding and 3-point shooting. As long as the Flyers don’t turn the ball over, both Ohio State and Syracuse are in trouble.
3. The winner of Iowa and Tennessee goes to the sweet 16
Since these “opening round” games have come about at least one of those teams makes it to the sweet 16. VCU and LaSalle are the ones that really come to mind. Iowa is a top-50 team in rebounds, turnovers and offense. Tennessee is a top-50 team in defense. UMass will have a fight on its hands for sure. And some crazy thing might happen to Duke.
2. No. 14 seed Mercer over 3 seed Duke
Mercer matches up well with Duke as both like to shoot the 3. Mercer defeated last year’s Cinderella in Florida Gulf Coast to get here and almost won at Texas. The Bears should hang around in this one and get Duke unhinged. They lost to 15 seeded Lehigh not too long ago so another Duke collapse is not a stunner anymore. Mercer is also a top-50 rebounding team so Duke must dominate the turnover battle. If the Bears protect the ball they could pull it off.
1. No. 15 seed Eastern Kentucky over 2 seed Kansas
And boom goes the dynamite. Eastern Kentucky is No. 2 in the nation in turnover margin. Just behind Louisville. Kansas is dead last in the Big-12 in turnovers. That’s a problem. Plus, if center Joel Embiid is out like we think he is for this game than Kansas will take a hit to its biggest advantages on the floor. That being blocks, rebounds and interior defense.
Will Kansas guard Andrew Wiggins be able to handle the pressure that comes in the NCAA tournament if a 15 seed is ahead with 2 minutes to go? Eastern Kentucky is also a top-50 3-point shooting team so it should not be gun-shy. If the Colonels connect from deep I truly think they’ll win. Better get ready Jayhawks. You’re on upset alert.
Honorable mentions
Stephen F Austin over VCU, Harvard over Cincinnati, Baylor to sweet 16, New Mexico to elite eight.
We are getting to the time of the year where quality mid-major programs are about to have a door slammed in their faces. While the known mid-majors like Wichita State, San Diego State and UMass are safely in the NCAA Tournament, others are not so lucky. These schools cannot count on an at-large bid from a selection committee that typically favors the 8th best team in the Big-10. As much fun as a Nebraska as an 11th seed might be (God help us) here are some mid-majors that should take their place instead. They are deserving of a spot even if they come up short for the automatic bid from their conference tournament.
Toledo: Record 23-4, 11-4 Mid-American Conference. RPI No. 30
The MAC is always on the border of achieving an at-large bid but the best team in the league rarely wins the tournament. The result is a one-bid league that sends multiple teams to the NIT and CBI.
Toledo should break this mold. The Rockets only loss one game out of conference and that was at Kansas. It won at Boston College who just beat Syracuse. Wins against Cleveland State and Robert Morris are quality victories as both hover around the RPI-Top 100.
Toledo is No. 1 in the MAC in offense, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and assists. The Rockets are also No. 2 in rebounding and free throw percentage.
The MAC should get respect too as it has had four teams in the RPI-Top 100. Losing games at Eastern Michigan, Ohio, and Western Michigan should not keep Toledo out.
Bottom line, Toledo is too good to not have in the big dance, even if loses in the MAC tournament.
Southern Mississippi: 23-5, 10-3 Conference USA. RPI No. 41
While Middle Tennessee State has been the darling of Conference USA, Southern Miss has a better RPI.
Sure, it was blown out at Louisville but that was the only egg the Golden Eagles have laid this season. Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Wins over Georgia State, North Dakota State are huge as both are leading their conferences. Morehead State is great victory too.
Southern Mississippi is No. 1 in Conference USA in defense and is No. 2 in field-goal percentage, assists, rebounds, and steals. That is a complete team.
Their success is another excuse to show their game day video from last year. Bet you can’t make it passed the 10 minute mark of this.
Mercer: 22-7, 13-3 Atlantic Sun. RPI 68
Final: Mercer 73, Stetson 50 | Bears move to 22-7 (13-3 #ASunMBB) | Bears now 1 win short of tying school record for A-Sun wins
The Atlantic Sun gave us Florida Gulf Coast last year and Mercer appears ready to carry on the Cinderella tradition. Mercer has yet to lose at home and defeated Seton Hall and Ole Miss. It darn near won at Texas in the season opener as it lost by three.
It is tough to win on the road in any league so you can’t hold a road loss at North Florida against them too much. The Bears were willing to play people on the road out of conference and that should be rewarded.
Mercer is No. 1 in the Atlantic Sun in offense, defense, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, rebounding, blocks, and assists. Translation: a bracket-buster waiting to happen.
Problem is Florida Gulf Coast is still a good basketball team and might win the conference tournament to steal the automatic bid. Will the committee let in an Atlantic Sun team in as an at-large? History says no, but Mercer should be an exception. Don’t blow it selection committee.
Honorable mentions: North Dakota State, Belmont, Stephen F. Austin, and Indiana State.
NC2A Nerd 