FCS Playoff Preview 2014

It’s that time of year. We’re talking playoffs.

Most of you will be watching your favorite rivalry game in FBS ball this weekend, but Saturday is also a big day for the FCS level. It’s the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Sixteen of the 24 teams will be in action and it’s time to break the field down.

1. Is New Hampshire really the best team?

The Wildcats went undefeated against FCS foes this year, only losing to FBS Toledo 54-20. While the CAA has three other teams in field, UNH did not play two of them. Villanova, the six seed, and James Madison were not on the schedule. Therefore, it’s hard to justify a CAA crown with that conference slate.

Its toughest opponent, Richmond, was a close three-point win. Last week, New Hampshire survived a 5-5 Maine team 20-12. Doesn’t really sound like the best team in the FCS. The Wildcats are good, you have to be to go 10-1, but the top seed seems generous.

2. What Top 8 Seeds are on Upset Alert?

There is always a team or two who go down in the second round as a top eight seed. The four/five seeds need to look out as Illinois State and Eastern Washington may have tough match-ups. Illinois State shared the Missouri Valley Football Conference (FCS best five teams in the field) with North Dakota State but may have to deal with a dangerous Northern Iowa club. UNI lost to Illinois State by 14 on Nov. 1 but the Panthers did beat North Dakota State and almost shocked Iowa.

Montana should cruise through San Diego and meet conference rival Eastern Washington in the second round. Again, EWU won the first meeting but it was close. Beating a team like Northern Iowa and Montana twice in the same year is not easy. Montana is number one in FCS in turnover margin at plus 16. Eastern Washington better protect the ball in that game.

Chattanooga, the eight seed, would be favored against the Eastern Kentucky/Indiana State winner but it will not be a cake walk. And if you think Villanova is looking forward to the winner of James Madison/Liberty you’re crazy.

3. Will North Dakota State make it four straight championships?

The Bison have the best defense in the field giving up just 255 yards per game. The question for them will be on offense. North Dakota State averaged 429 yards per game so it’s hard to see them struggling, especially at home. Their first two games should be a breeze as the semifinals and championship will be the only places for the Bison to falter. But there is one team I think can beat them.

4. The Dark Horse: Jacksonville State

The Gamecocks are number four in offense and number 14 in defense. That’s a juggernaut folks. Jacksonville State won at Chattanooga in week 2 and should be ready to challenge anyone, including North Dakota State. That’s why I’m picking Jacksonville State to win it all this year.

Now if it loses to Southeastern Louisiana in the second round then you never read this column. Here is my bracket.

An objective way to rank the conferences

Is this still the best conference in the country or the acronym for the Securities and Exchange Commission?

Ranking conference power has become a never ending debate for college football fans. Conference prestige leads to better chances of gaining BCS slots and next year, playoff seeds. With only four playoff seeds expect huge feuds between the leagues. And what if three SEC teams get into the four-team playoff? Welcome to Armageddon.

To sift through the propaganda, we need an objective tool to do this. That is where the Sagarin rankings come in. Sagarin, a formula created by Jeff Sagarin, is the only system that rates all FBS and FCS teams. The main components of the system include strength of schedule and margin of victory. As the season goes along it becomes more accurate. Here is an example I did a couple of years ago on how the Big Ten compares to the Mid-American Conference.

Sagarin does create his own conference rankings too but breaks it down by division. Hence, the SEC West is separated from the SEC East. That’s not what college football fans want.

Using the individual team ranking I simply added the conference teams together and divided by the number of teams in the league to find the average. I also found the conference median, an example would be the seventh best team in a 13-team league. Splitting the difference between the average and the median would be the total score. Here are the results. FCS leagues are italicized and non-BCS leagues are underlined. Remember, a lower score means you are closer to a top 25 ranking. SEC and PAC-12 equal?

The difference is virtually insignificant. The biggest distinction is between the outliers of the conference, Kentucky and California. You guessed it, the worst team in each league. Kentucky (2-10) came in at No. 104 while Cal (1-11) was borderline cancer at No. 118. Cal did not beat a single FBS opponent all year and was only competitive once in PAC-12 play (Arizona). Kentucky was nothing to be proud of but it did make South Carolina and Mississippi State work for it. The better margin of defeat (Kentucky’s football slogan and I say that as a Lexington native) gave the SEC the edge.

The real story though is the SEC is not so vastly better than everyone else. Stanford and Arizona State ended up with the No. 1 and No. 2 most difficult schedules respectfully. This is partly because the PAC-12 plays nine conference games, eliminating a soft non-conference game against a FCS or low level FBS team. Contrast that with Alabama, who played FCS Chattanooga and the leaky nuclear reactor known as 0-12 Georgia State.

ACC bottom feeders

Congratulations to Florida State on winning the championship. Problem is your conference only has three teams in the top 40 (FSU, Clemson and Georgia Tech). The PAC-12 and SEC have 10. Having two teams outside the top 100 (Virginia and N.C. State) is a disaster for a power conference looking for credibility. Florida State better go undefeated again next year if it wants to be in that four-team playoff.

No hope for the AAC

If the SEC and PAC-12 are fine dining then the American Athletic Conference is Long John Silver’s. No one in the league had a strength of schedule in the top 60. Connecticut won three conference games and still finished at No. 121. Don’t even mention dead weight South Florida at No. 143. Oh, and Louisville is going to the ACC next year. Good luck.

Missouri Valley and Colonial make the leap

The other eye-popping score came from two FCS conferences. The Missouri Valley blew past two FBS conferences (MAC and Conference USA) and would have caught the Sun Belt too if it had more than eight teams. This is thanks to No. 17 North Dakota State winning its third FCS title. North Dakota State is the first FCS team to even crack the top 25 of the final Sagarin rankings since the end of the 1996 season (No. 21 Marshall). Its win at No. 23 Kansas State inflated the strength of schedule for the rest of conference.

FBS level football on a FCS budget.

Three other MVC teams cracked the top 100 as even last place Indiana State did its part. The Sycamores went a dreadful 1-11 and stayed in the top 200 at No. 198. This was in part thanks to a close defeat at Big 10 Purdue. While the Boilermakers shot the average of the Big 10, the Sycamores did only moderate damage to the MVC.

The Colonial Athletic Association also had four schools in the top 100 with No. 66 Towson leading the way. Villanova came in at No. 88 despite its 6-5 record. That’s unheard of for a FCS program.

Honorable Mentions

The Ivy League for having an average FCS ranking despite not giving out scholarships. When six BCS teams are behind No. 112 Princeton and No. 114 Harvard, it’s time to point and laugh.  Also to the Pioneer League, another league that does not give scholarships, for staying close with the SWAC.